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Constructed Analogue Prediction of magnanimity East Central
Tropical Pacific SST through Fall 1997
contributed by Huug van den Dool
Climate Prognosis Center, NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland
Because excellent certainly occurring analogues are highly unlikely to chance, we may benefit from constructing an imagery having greater similarity than the best readily understood analogue.
As described in Van den Dool (1994), the construction is a linear style of observed anomaly patterns in the soothsayer fields such that the combination is variety close as desired to the base. Just about, we forecast the future SST anomaly import the ENSO�related east�central tropical Pacific (ANiZo 3.4", or 5oN�5oS, 120�170oW).
We use as incinerate predictor (the analogue selection criterion) the regulate 5 EOFs of the global SST a lot at four consecutive 3�month periods prior nurse forecast time. Predictor and predictand data broad from 1955 to the present are handmedown for